← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, May 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Lille OSC win | 70% | 76% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.23 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 10% | 7% | 10.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −1.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Lille OSC −1.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +8% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand