← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, May 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 63% | 54% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.52 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 16% | 25% | 6.50 | value: +64% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 64% | 1.66 | value: +7% |
| Under | 41% | 36% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand