← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sat, May 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 69% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.53 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 13% | 10% | 7.78 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Lorient −1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 56% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 44% | 2.88 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 41' | 🟨 | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 53' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 65' | ⚽ | Lucas Paquetá · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Guimarães · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 77' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 79' | 🟨 | Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient |
| 83' | ⚽ | Thomas Monconduit · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 738.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1829.07 | 1588.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.75 | 24.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 70.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 28.23 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |