← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Fri, May 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Lille OSC win | 50% | 50% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.53 | fair |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 23% | 26% | 4.31 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Racing Club de Lens +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Lille OSC +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.16 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |