← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 65% | 65% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.87 | fair |
| Nantes win | 14% | 17% | 7.00 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nantes +1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Olympique Lyonnais +1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |