← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 38% | 30% | 2.57 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 34% | 43% | 2.91 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Stade Brestois 29 +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Racing Club de Lens |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Yannick Cahuzac · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Massadio Haïdara · Racing Club de Lens |
| 53' | 🟨 | Steven Fortes · Racing Club de Lens |
| 59' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · Racing Club de Lens |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonathan Clauss · Racing Club de Lens |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Gaël Kakuta · Racing Club de Lens |
| 81' | 🟨 | Steven Fortes · Racing Club de Lens |
| 81' | 🟥 | Steven Fortes · Racing Club de Lens |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jean Lucas · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jean Lucas · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 89' | 🟥 | Jean Lucas · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · Racing Club de Lens |
| 89' | 🟥 | Simon Banza · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 687.00 | 413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1598.87 | 1681.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.86 | 33.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 36.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.89 | 27.68 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |