← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 57% | 62% | 1.71 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.96 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 18% | 17% | 5.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Lille OSC −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.94 | value: +9% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand