← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 49% | 51% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Metz win | 22% | 21% | 4.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Racing Club de Lens −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 55% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 45% | 2.45 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gradit · Racing Club de Lens |
| 13' | ⚽ | Jonathan Clauss · Racing Club de Lens |
| 19' | 🟨 | Massadio Haïdara · Racing Club de Lens |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Vagner Dias · Metz |
| 36' | ⚽ | Yannick Cahuzac · Racing Club de Lens |
| 37' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 37' | 🟨 | Vagner Dias · Metz |
| 50' | 🟨 | John Boye · Metz |
| 57' | ⚽ | Thomas Delaine · Metz |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Metz |
| 86' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 🟨 |
| Seko Fofana · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 378.00 | 164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1659.16 | 1671.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.76 | -16.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 10.83 | 10.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 26.24 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |