β Ligue 1 2020-21 Β· Wed, Mar 3, 08:00 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Bastien
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Montpellier win | 49% | 42% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
| FC Lorient win | 24% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Lorient β0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Montpellier β0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand