← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Wed, Mar 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 36% | 35% | 2.71 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 34% | 32% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AS Saint-Étienne +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Harold Moukoudi · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 24' | ⚽ | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Racing Club de Lens |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 40' | ⚽ | Harold Moukoudi · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lucas Gourna-Douath · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 77' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · Racing Club de Lens |
| 84' | 🟨 | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | ⚽ | David da Costa · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Denis Bouanga · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days |
| 519.00 |
| 367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1547.32 | 1606.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.80 | 8.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.33 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |