← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sat, Feb 27, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 78% | 71% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.50 | value: +13% |
| Dijon win | 8% | 11% | 13.00 | value: +46% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dijon +2 | 58% | 1.66 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +2 | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 34% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand