← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Feb 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 55% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.87 | fair |
| Dijon win | 19% | 18% | 5.19 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dijon −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Montpellier −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Senou Coulibaly · Dijon |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Dijon |
| 31' | 🟨 | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 39' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 44' | 🟨 | Senou Coulibaly · Dijon |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 56' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 61' | ⚽ | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 69' | 🟨 | Senou Coulibaly · Dijon |
| 69' | 🟥 | Senou Coulibaly · Dijon |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 13 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 🟨 |
| Damien Le Tallec · Montpellier |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Moussa Konaté · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Petar Škuletić · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1378.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1650.61 | 1549.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.73 | -11.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 29.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 27.47 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |