← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 83% | 80% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 9.60 | value: +16% |
| FC Lorient win | 7% | 8% | 15.24 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +2.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Lorient +2.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 64% | 1.28 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 36% | 4.00 | value: +43% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient |
| 2' | 🟨 | Danilo Pereira · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 12' | 🟨 | Enzo Le Fée · FC Lorient |
| 28' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · FC Lorient |
| 36' | ⚽ | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir |
| 90' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 641.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1488.24 | 1892.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.20 | 9.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.90 |
| league points | 15.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 3.75 | 8.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 2.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.97 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |