← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 64% | 71% | 1.54 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 16% | 10% | 6.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Racing Club de Lens −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +5% |
| Under | 41% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 40' | 🟨 | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Steven Fortes · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jean-Louis Leca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 56' | ⚽ | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 85' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Racing Club de Lens |
| 89' | ⚽ | Cheick Doucouré · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 463.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1762.97 | 1600.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.38 | 29.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.90 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| league points | 36.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 24.74 |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |