← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 65% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +13% |
| Nimes win | 13% | 14% | 7.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nimes −1.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −1.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.84 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 38' | ⚽ | Habib Diallo · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 57' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Nimes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lamine Fomba · Nimes |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Majeed Waris · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1650.00 | 1893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1620.33 | 1528.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.00 | -56.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 13.92 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 25.56 |
| state index | 0.13 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |