← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 23, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Petit
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 49% | 51% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 24% | 21% | 4.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| OGC Nice −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jordan Lotomba · OGC Nice |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jeff Reine-Adélaïde · OGC Nice |
| 38' | 🟨 | Julien Laporte · FC Lorient |
| 44' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · FC Lorient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient |
| 49' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 73' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 81' | 🟥 | Robson Bambu · OGC Nice |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrian Grbić · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeff Reine-Adélaïde · OGC Nice |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 🟨 |
| Jordan Lotomba · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Le Fée · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 936.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1566.29 | 1495.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.25 | -16.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 21.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.04 | — |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |