← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 76% | 63% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.50 | value: +16% |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 9% | 19% | 10.87 | value: +102% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stade Brestois 29 −1.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 59% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 41% | 3.20 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand