← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 76% | 63% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.50 | value: +16% |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 9% | 19% | 10.87 | value: +102% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stade Brestois 29 −1.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 59% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 41% | 3.20 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Mattia De Sciglio · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Anthony Lopes · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 74' | 🟥 | Paul Lasne · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Lopes · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Faivre · Stade Brestois 29 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 442.00 | 564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.99 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1816.84 | 1631.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.33 | 50.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 25.32 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |