← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 50% | 40% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 22% | 30% | 4.58 | value: +38% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Montpellier −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 13' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 25' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Habib Diallo · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 31' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 54' | 🟨 | Daniel Congré · Montpellier |
| 68' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 3 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1301.00 | 1605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1636.60 | 1540.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.55 | -13.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| league points | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.92 | 15.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.89 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |