← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 38% | 38% | 2.65 | fair |
| Nimes win | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Nimes +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 46% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Mathias Pereira Lage · Angers SCO |
| 14' | 🟨 | Mathias Pereira Lage · Angers SCO |
| 17' | 🟨 | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 23' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 39' | 🟨 | Yassine Benrahou · Nimes |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Amadou · Angers SCO |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Nimes |
| 56' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · Angers SCO |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Loïs Diony · Angers SCO |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| 🟨 |
| Vincent Manceau · Angers SCO |
| 90' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Nimes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jimmy Cabot · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1834.00 | 3418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1539.18 | 1564.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.86 | -0.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |