← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 55% | 47% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.94 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 20% | 27% | 4.75 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Lille OSC +0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Julien Faussurier · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Romain Perraud · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 41' | ⚽ | Irvin Cardona · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Burak Yılmaz · Lille OSC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Burak Yılmaz · Lille OSC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Steve Mounié · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Burak Yılmaz · Lille OSC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Lille OSC |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gautier Larsonneur · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 526.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1528.02 | 1763.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.05 | 29.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.78 |
| league points | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 2.67 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.97 |
| state index | -0.66 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |