← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 37% | 53% | 2.69 | value: +42% ⚠ |
| Lille OSC win | 34% | 18% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Lille OSC +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 28' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Lille OSC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Karl Toko Ekambi · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 41' | 🟨 | Burak Yılmaz · Lille OSC |
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Zeki Çelik · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 50' | 🟥 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 88' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 305.00 | 397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 5.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1741.53 | 1698.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.26 | 9.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 23.52 | 25.30 |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |