← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 37% | 36% | 2.71 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 34% | 35% | 2.94 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AS Saint-Étienne +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 43% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 57% | 2.00 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 30' | ⚽ | Amine Gouiri · OGC Nice |
| 49' | 🟨 | Hassane Kamara · OGC Nice |
| 57' | ⚽ | Adil Aouchiche · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 58' | 🟨 | Stanley N'Soki · OGC Nice |
| 67' | 🟨 | Walter Benítez · OGC Nice |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jordan Lotomba · OGC Nice |
| 72' | 🟨 | Harold Moukoudi · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 73' | 🟨 | Robson Bambu · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| ⚽ |
| Myziane Maolida · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 383.00 | 870.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1564.45 | 1623.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.79 | 2.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.78 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |