← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 18, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 55% | 43% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.86 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 19% | 31% | 5.01 | value: +58% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +9% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand