← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 46% | 48% | 2.16 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Moreto Cassama · Reims |
| 19' | 🟨 | Xavier Chavalerin · Reims |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hugo Ekitiké · Reims |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mouhamadou Drammeh · Reims |
| 53' | 🟨 | Wout Faes · Reims |
| 61' | ⚽ | Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient |
| 70' | 🟥 | Moreto Cassama · Reims |
| 80' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| 🟥 |
| Anastasios Donis · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1265.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1607.10 | 1520.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.10 | -40.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.79 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 41.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.08 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |