← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 54% | 60% | 1.83 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Reims win | 19% | 14% | 5.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 48% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 52% | 2.25 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims |
| 24' | ⚽ | Raphinha · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Damien Da Silva · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Flavien Tait · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Wout Faes · Reims |
| 54' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Xavier Chavalerin · Reims |
| 66' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Reims |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Nayef Aguerd · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 673.00 | 1252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1776.76 | 1662.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.57 | -21.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| league points | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 24.90 |
| state index | 1.43 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |