← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 79% | 74% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 16% | 7.48 | value: +20% |
| Reims win | 7% | 10% | 15.00 | value: +51% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Reims +2 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 69% | 61% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |