← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sat, Sep 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 41% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.06 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 28% | 23% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Racing Club de Lens −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 41% | 2.65 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Steven Fortes · Racing Club de Lens |
| 8' | 🟨 | Otavio · Bordeaux |
| 18' | 🟨 | Paul Baysse · Bordeaux |
| 21' | 🟨 | Cheick Doucouré · Racing Club de Lens |
| 39' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ignatius Ganago · Racing Club de Lens |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gradit · Racing Club de Lens |
| 58' | 🟨 | Paul Baysse · Bordeaux |
| 58' | 🟥 | Paul Baysse · Bordeaux |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Gaël Kakuta · Racing Club de Lens |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 76' |
| 🟨 |
| Loris Benito · Bordeaux |
| 85' | 🟨 | Corentin Jean · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Maja · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samuel Kalu · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 202.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1591.06 | 1675.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.65 | 14.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 7.83 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |