← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Sep 13, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Petit
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 43% | 44% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 28% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Quentin Boisgard · FC Lorient |
| 13' | ⚽ | Adrian Grbić · FC Lorient |
| 30' | 🟨 | Julien Laporte · FC Lorient |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Gaël Kakuta · Racing Club de Lens |
| 34' | ⚽ | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stéphane Diarra · FC Lorient |
| 49' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Racing Club de Lens |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ignatius Ganago · Racing Club de Lens |
| 65' | 🟨 | Enzo Le Fée · FC Lorient |
| 79' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Racing Club de Lens |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir |
| 90' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟥 | Loïc Badé · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 501.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1548.39 | 1559.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.03 | 1.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 2.75 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |