← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 57% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 17% | 22% | 5.80 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 46% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 54% | 2.24 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand