← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Fri, Feb 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 44% | 38% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.41 | value: +15% |
| Nimes win | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Nimes +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 51% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 49% | 2.36 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Zinedine Ferhat · Nimes |
| 10' | ⚽ | Darío Benedetto · Olympique de Marseille |
| 14' | 🟨 | Loïck Landre · Nimes |
| 36' | ⚽ | Darío Benedetto · Olympique de Marseille |
| 68' | ⚽ | Darío Benedetto · Olympique de Marseille |
| 71' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Olympique de Marseille |
| 75' | 🟨 | Zinedine Ferhat · Nimes |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sidy Sarr · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Steve Mandanda · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1580.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1631.62 | 1760.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.74 | 1.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 27.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 5.16 | 6.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 27.81 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |