← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 16, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Reims win | 34% | 36% | 2.89 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 34% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 32% | 32% | 3.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Reims +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 70% | 62% | 1.40 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 38% | 3.20 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |