← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 16, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 36% | 27% | 2.72 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 34% | 40% | 2.96 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| AS Saint-Étienne +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 49% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 51% | 2.16 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |