← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 15, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 63% | 83% | 1.55 | value: +29% ⚠ |
| Draw | 21% | 11% | 4.50 | fair |
| Amiens win | 15% | 6% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Amiens +1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Amiens |
| 29' | ⚽ | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 40' | ⚽ | Fousseni Diabaté · Amiens |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ander Herrera · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Mitchel Bakker · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Tanguy Nianzou · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Tanguy Nianzou · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Amiens |
| 74' | ⚽ | Mauro Icardi · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Serhou Guirassy · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 229.00 | 594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1531.43 | 1977.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.09 | 31.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| league points | 20.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 2.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 27.44 |
| state index | -0.76 | 2.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |