← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 49% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +9% |
| Nimes win | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nimes −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| OGC Nice −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Alexis Claude-Maurice · OGC Nice |
| 31' | 🟨 | Pablo Martínez · Nimes |
| 33' | 🟨 | Stanley N'Soki · OGC Nice |
| 43' | ⚽ | Loïck Landre · Nimes |
| 49' | 🟥 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 53' | 🟨 | Danilo Barbosa · OGC Nice |
| 53' | ⚽ | Romain Philippoteaux · Nimes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Yassine Benrahou · Nimes |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sidy Sarr · Nimes |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| ⚽ |
| Moussa Koné · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 617.00 | 1560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1686.35 | 1609.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.40 | 30.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 33.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 3.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |