← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 36% | 39% | 2.76 | value: +7% |
| Nantes win | 34% | 29% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dijon +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Nantes +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Dijon |
| 20' | ⚽ | Moses Simon · Nantes |
| 24' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 34' | ⚽ (og) | Mickaël Alphonse · Nantes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Percy Prado Ruiz · Nantes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mickaël Alphonse · Dijon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Nantes |
| 77' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 222.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1566.71 | 1641.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.97 | -16.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 24.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 3.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |