← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 50% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| OGC Nice +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 63% | 1.78 | value: +12% |
| Under | 45% | 37% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟥 | Fernando Marçal · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 33' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · OGC Nice |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adam Ounas · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexis Claude-Maurice · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟥 | Adam Ounas · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 45' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 52' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 63' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · OGC Nice |
| 71' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days |
| 611.00 |
| 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1604.65 | 1710.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.19 | 12.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 45.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 8.76 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 26.53 |
| state index | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |