← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 07:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 44% | 46% | 2.21 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 29% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Lille OSC −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 46% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 54% | 2.10 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.