← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 68% | 80% | 1.40 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 5.00 | fair |
| Nimes win | 12% | 6% | 8.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nimes −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes |
| 33' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Sofiane Alakouch · Olympique de Marseille |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sidy Sarr · Nimes |
| 65' | ⚽ | Darío Benedetto · Olympique de Marseille |
| 81' | ⚽ | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | ⚽ | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days |
| 234.00 |
| 1511.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1678.10 | 1525.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.21 | -50.34 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.14 | 7.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.35 | — |
| state index | 1.27 | -1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |