← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Wed, Dec 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 46% | 41% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 25% | 31% | 3.89 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Denis Bouanga · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 14' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · OGC Nice |
| 24' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 38' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 40' | ⚽ | Wesley Fofana · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 49' | 🟨 | Stéphane Ruffier · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 58' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gautier Lloris · OGC Nice |
| 82' | 🟨 | Patrick Burner · OGC Nice |
| 88' | 🟨 | Loïs Diony · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 551.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1627.02 | 1595.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.07 | 12.58 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |