← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Wed, Dec 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 35% | 38% | 2.77 | value: +5% |
| Dijon win | 33% | 26% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Dijon +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Junior Sambia · Dijon |
| 15' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 29' | ⚽ | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 34' | 🟨 | Hamza Mendyl · Dijon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Romain Amalfitano · Dijon |
| 55' | 🟨 | Fouad Chafik · Dijon |
| 61' | 🟨 | Clement Vidal · Montpellier |
| 72' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Dijon |
| 76' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 78' | 🟨 | Damien Le Tallec · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 156.00 | 947.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1553.26 | 1712.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.70 | 13.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 27.95 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |