← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Reims win | 37% | 41% | 2.67 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 56% | 1.72 |
| Reims −0.25 | 44% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 59% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 41% | 2.75 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |