← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 39% | 36% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 30% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Toulouse FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 19' | ⚽ | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 36' | 🟨 | Loris Benito · Bordeaux |
| 51' | 🟨 | William Vainqueur · Toulouse FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Bordeaux |
| 56' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Efthymios Koulouris · Toulouse FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Steven Moreira · Toulouse FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nicolas Isimat-Mirin · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 4.00 | 395.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1553.02 | 1645.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.74 | 26.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.63 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |