← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 54% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 18% | 20% | 5.39 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bordeaux −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +5% |
| Over | 43% | 38% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Bordeaux |
| 20' | ⚽ | Samuel Grandsir · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jean-Charles Castelletto · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Haris Belkebla · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 41' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mathias Autret · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 46' | 🟨 | Yacine Adli · Bordeaux |
| 61' | 🟨 | Denys Bain · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 71' | 🟨 | Otavio · Bordeaux |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 84' |
| 🟨 |
| Edson Mexer · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 381.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1571.90 | 1583.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.23 | -5.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |