← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 46% | 38% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.45 | value: +11% |
| OGC Nice win | 25% | 30% | 3.80 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nimes −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
| 11' | 🟨 | Racine Coly · OGC Nice |
| 16' | ⚽ | Ignatius Ganago · OGC Nice |
| 25' | 🟨 | Theo Valls · Nimes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 43' | 🟨 | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 51' | 🟨 | Racine Coly · OGC Nice |
| 51' | 🟥 | Racine Coly · OGC Nice |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pablo Martínez · Nimes |
| 72' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| 🟨 |
| Adrien Tameze · OGC Nice |
| 89' | 🟨 | Romain Philippoteaux · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Martínez · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pablo Martínez · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1385.00 | 442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1601.98 | 1604.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.33 | 12.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |