← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 10, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 42% | 43% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.01 | fair |
| Amiens win | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Amiens −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 41% | 2.78 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 17' | 🟨 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 27' | 🟨 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 27' | 🟥 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 32' | ⚽ | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mickaël Le Bihan · OGC Nice |
| 76' | 🟨 | Serhou Guirassy · Amiens |
| 81' | ⚽ | Chadrac Akolo · Amiens |
| 88' | 🟨 | Adrien Tameze · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| ⚽ |
| Dante · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 435.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1598.89 | 1505.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.19 | 0.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.64 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.52 | — |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |