← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 42% | 31% | 2.34 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 32% | 37% | 3.01 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.76 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 15' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Lille OSC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Loïc Rémy · Lille OSC |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 35' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Lille OSC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 71' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| coach days |
| 174.00 |
| 539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1608.60 | 1696.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.08 | 28.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 49.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.12 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |