← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 68% | 64% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 24% | 5.65 | value: +34% |
| Reims win | 15% | 12% | 6.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Tristan Dingome · Reims |
| 36' | ⚽ | Rahman Baba · Reims |
| 44' | 🟨 | Julian Draxler · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
| 59' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Edouard Mendy · Reims |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pablo Chavarria · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 753.00 | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1594.48 | 1878.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.60 | -13.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 52.00 | 91.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 2.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.27 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 1.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |