← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 53% | 44% | 1.85 | fair |
| Nimes win | 25% | 30% | 3.87 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.40 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 11' | ⚽ | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 45' | ⚽ | Antonin Bobichon · Nimes |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes |
| 89' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tanguy Ndombélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| coach days |
| 1300.00 |
| 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1615.40 | 1733.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.63 | 30.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 1.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 53.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.48 |
| state index | 0.52 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |