← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 48% | 54% | 2.01 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.72 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Lebo Mothiba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 235.00 | 1057.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1650.86 | 1613.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.72 | -45.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.60 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| league points | 48.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |