← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 66% | 61% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.26 | value: +12% |
| Toulouse FC win | 15% | 18% | 6.30 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Bafodé Diakité · Toulouse FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 58' | ⚽ | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
| 62' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 84' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 143.00 | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1458.34 | 1477.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.89 | -14.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| league points | 31.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |